IMECH-IR  > 力学所知识产出(1956-2008)
Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability
Wei YJ(魏宇杰); Xia MF(夏蒙棼); Ke FJ(柯孚久); Yin XC(尹祥础); Bai YL(白以龙); Wei, YJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, State Key Lab Nonlinear Mech, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China.
Source PublicationPure and Applied Geophysics
AbstractBoth earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.
Subject Area力学
Indexed BySCI
WOS IDWOS:000166705300008
WOS Research AreaGeochemistry & Geophysics
WOS SubjectGeochemistry & Geophysics
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Cited Times:16[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorWei, YJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, State Key Lab Nonlinear Mech, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wei YJ,Xia MF,Ke FJ,et al. Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics,2000,157(11-12):1945-1957.
APA 魏宇杰,夏蒙棼,柯孚久,尹祥础,白以龙,&Wei, YJ .(2000).Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability.Pure and Applied Geophysics,157(11-12),1945-1957.
MLA 魏宇杰,et al."Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability".Pure and Applied Geophysics 157.11-12(2000):1945-1957.
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