Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability

doi:10.1007/PL00001069

IMECH-IR > 力学所知识产出(1956-2008)

	Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability
	Wei YJ(魏宇杰); Xia MF(夏蒙棼); Ke FJ(柯孚久); Yin XC(尹祥础); Bai YL(白以龙); Wei, YJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, State Key Lab Nonlinear Mech, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China.
发表期刊	Pure and Applied Geophysics
	2000
卷号	157 期号:11-12 页码:1945-1957
ISSN	0033-4553
摘要	Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.
学科领域	力学
DOI	10.1007/PL00001069
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000166705300008
关键词[WOS]	SENSITIVITY ; FAILURE ; MODELS
WOS研究方向	Geochemistry & Geophysics
WOS类目	Geochemistry & Geophysics
引用统计	被引频次：16[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/16867
专题	力学所知识产出(1956-2008)
通讯作者	Wei, YJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, State Key Lab Nonlinear Mech, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wei YJ,Xia MF,Ke FJ,et al. Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics,2000,157,11-12,:1945-1957.
APA	魏宇杰,夏蒙棼,柯孚久,尹祥础,白以龙,&Wei, YJ .(2000).Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability.Pure and Applied Geophysics,157(11-12),1945-1957.
MLA	魏宇杰,et al."Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability".Pure and Applied Geophysics 157.11-12(2000):1945-1957.

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