IMECH-IR  > 非线性力学国家重点实验室
Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China
Zhang YX; Zhang XT; Yin XC(尹祥础); Wu YJ
Source PublicationConcurrency and Computation-Practice & Experience
2010
Volume22Issue:12Pages:1559-1568
ISSN1532-0626
AbstractIn this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KeywordPi Method Retrospective Forecast Test North China Southwest China
DOI10.1002/cpe.1515
URL查看原文
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000281329200005
WOS KeywordPATTERN INFORMATICS METHOD ; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; THRESHOLD SYSTEMS ; EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ; DYNAMICS
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Software Engineering ; Computer Science, Theory & Methods
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/43551
Collection非线性力学国家重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorWu YJ
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Yin XC,et al. Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China[J]. Concurrency and Computation-Practice & Experience,2010,22(12):1559-1568.
APA Zhang YX,Zhang XT,尹祥础,&Wu YJ.(2010).Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China.Concurrency and Computation-Practice & Experience,22(12),1559-1568.
MLA Zhang YX,et al."Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China".Concurrency and Computation-Practice & Experience 22.12(2010):1559-1568.
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