| Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China | |
| Zhang YX; Zhang XT; Yin XC(尹祥础); Wu YJ | |
| Source Publication | Concurrency and Computation-Practice & Experience
 |
| 2010 | |
| Volume | 22Issue:12Pages:1559-1568 |
| ISSN | 1532-0626 |
| Abstract | In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| Keyword | Pi Method Retrospective Forecast Test North China Southwest China |
| DOI | 10.1002/cpe.1515 |
| URL | 查看原文 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| WOS ID | WOS:000281329200005 |
| WOS Keyword | PATTERN INFORMATICS METHOD ; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; THRESHOLD SYSTEMS ; EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ; DYNAMICS |
| WOS Research Area | Computer Science |
| WOS Subject | Computer Science, Software Engineering ; Computer Science, Theory & Methods |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/43551 |
| Collection | 非线性力学国家重点实验室 |
| Corresponding Author | Wu YJ |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Yin XC,et al. Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China[J]. Concurrency and Computation-Practice & Experience,2010,22(12):1559-1568. |
| APA | Zhang YX,Zhang XT,尹祥础,&Wu YJ.(2010).Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China.Concurrency and Computation-Practice & Experience,22(12),1559-1568. |
| MLA | Zhang YX,et al."Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China".Concurrency and Computation-Practice & Experience 22.12(2010):1559-1568. |
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