Mitochondria experience continuous fusion and fission in a living cell, but their dynamics remains poorly quantified. Here a theoretical model was developed, upon a simplified population balance equation (PBE), to predict the morphological changes induced by mitochondrial fission and fusion. Assuming that both fission and fusion events are statistically independent, the survival probability of mitochondria staying in the fission or fusion state was formulated as an exponentially-decayed function with time, which depended on the time-dependent distribution of the mitochondrial volume and the fission and fusion rates. Parametric analysis was done for two typical volume distributions. One was Gamma distribution and the other was Gaussian distribution, derived from the measurements of volume distribution for individual mitochondria in a living cell and purified mitochondria in vitro. The predictions indicated that the survival probability strongly depended on morphological changes of individual mitochondria and was inversely correlated to the fission and fusion rates. This work provided a new insight into quantifying the mitochondrial dynamics via monitoring the evolution of the mitochondrial volume.