| Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises |
| Gao JB(高剑波) ; Hu J; Mao X; Zhou M; Gurbaxani B; Lin J; Gao, JB (reprint author), PMB Intelligence LLC, W Lafayette, IN 47996 USA
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| 发表期刊 | PLOS One
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| 2011
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| 卷号 | 6期号:10页码:e25053 |
| ISSN | 1932-6203
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| 摘要 | Health monitoring of world economy is an important issue, especially in a time of profound economic difficulty world-wide. The most important aspect of health monitoring is to accurately predict economic downturns. To gain insights into how economic crises develop, we present two metrics, positive and negative income entropy and distribution analysis, to analyze the collective "spatial'' and temporal dynamics of companies in nine sectors of the world economy over a 19 year period from 1990-2008. These metrics provide accurate predictive skill with a very low false-positive rate in predicting downturns. The new metrics also provide evidence of phase transition-like behavior prior to the onset of recessions. Such a transition occurs when negative pretax incomes prior to or during economic recessions transition from a thin-tailed exponential distribution to the higher entropy Pareto distribution, and develop even heavier tails than those of the positive pretax incomes. These features propagate from the crisis initiating sector of the economy to other sectors. |
| 关键词 | Social Phase-transitions
Law
Economics
Markets
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| 学科领域 | Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
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| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0025053
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| URL | 查看原文
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| 收录类别 | SCI
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| 语种 | 英语
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| WOS记录号 | WOS:000295943000009
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| 关键词[WOS] | SOCIAL PHASE-TRANSITIONS
; LAW
; ECONOMICS
; MARKETS
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| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics
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| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences
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| 项目资助者 | This work is partially supported by the State Key Laboratory of Non-linear Mechanics (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
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| 论文分区 | 二类/Q1
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| 引用统计 |
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文
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| 条目标识符 | http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/44901
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| 专题 | 非线性力学国家重点实验室
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| 通讯作者 | Gao, JB (reprint author), PMB Intelligence LLC, W Lafayette, IN 47996 USA |
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Gao JB,Hu J,Mao X,et al. Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises[J]. PLOS One,2011,6,10,:e25053.
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| APA |
高剑波.,Hu J.,Mao X.,Zhou M.,Gurbaxani B.,...&Gao, JB .(2011).Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises.PLOS One,6(10),e25053.
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| MLA |
高剑波,et al."Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises".PLOS One 6.10(2011):e25053.
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