IMECH-IR  > 非线性力学国家重点实验室
Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes
Zhang YX; Zhang XT; Wu YJ; Yin XC(尹祥础); Zhang, YX (reprint author), China Earthquake Networks Ctr, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China.
Source PublicationPURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
2013
Volume170Issue:1-2Pages:197-208
ISSN0033-4553
AbstractTwo large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6A degrees N, 81.6A degrees E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0A degrees N, 103.4A degrees E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0A degrees-50.0A degrees N, 70.0A degrees-110.0A degrees E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Delta x, base time t (b), reference interval t (b) to t (1), change interval t (1) to t (2), and forecasting interval t (2) to t (3). In this paper, the base time t (b) fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t (3) fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t (2) to t (3) changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1A degrees A xA 1A degrees and 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1A degrees A xA 1A degrees and 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees, the models with 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4-8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7-10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test.
KeywordPi Method Retrospective Study Earthquake Predictability Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake Yutian M7.3 Earthquake Roc Test r Score Test
Subject Area固体力学
DOI10.1007/s00024-011-0444-6
URL查看原文
Indexed BySCI ; EI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000313455700014
WOS KeywordPRECURSORY SEISMIC ACTIVATION ; 1999 CHI-CHI ; THRESHOLD SYSTEMS ; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; CRITICAL-POINT ; FAULT SYSTEMS ; DYNAMICS ; EVENTS ; TAIWAN ; VERIFICATION
WOS Research AreaGeochemistry & Geophysics
WOS SubjectGeochemistry & Geophysics
Funding OrganizationMinistry of Science and Technology [2010DFB20190, 2008BAC35B05]
Classification二类/Q2
Citation statistics
Cited Times:4[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/47030
Collection非线性力学国家重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorZhang, YX (reprint author), China Earthquake Networks Ctr, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Wu YJ,et al. Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes[J]. PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS,2013,170(1-2):197-208.
APA Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Wu YJ,Yin XC,&Zhang, YX .(2013).Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes.PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS,170(1-2),197-208.
MLA Zhang YX,et al."Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes".PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS 170.1-2(2013):197-208.
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