Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes

doi:10.1007/s00024-011-0444-6

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	Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes
	Zhang YX; Zhang XT; Wu YJ; Yin XC(尹祥础); Zhang, YX (reprint author), China Earthquake Networks Ctr, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China.
发表期刊	PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
	2013
卷号	170 期号:1-2 页码:197-208
ISSN	0033-4553
摘要	Two large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6A degrees N, 81.6A degrees E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0A degrees N, 103.4A degrees E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0A degrees-50.0A degrees N, 70.0A degrees-110.0A degrees E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Delta x, base time t (b), reference interval t (b) to t (1), change interval t (1) to t (2), and forecasting interval t (2) to t (3). In this paper, the base time t (b) fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t (3) fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t (2) to t (3) changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1A degrees A xA 1A degrees and 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1A degrees A xA 1A degrees and 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees, the models with 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4-8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7-10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test.
关键词	Pi Method Retrospective Study Earthquake Predictability Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake Yutian M7.3 Earthquake Roc Test r Score Test
学科领域	固体力学
DOI	10.1007/s00024-011-0444-6
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI ; EI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000313455700014
关键词[WOS]	PRECURSORY SEISMIC ACTIVATION ; 1999 CHI-CHI ; THRESHOLD SYSTEMS ; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; CRITICAL-POINT ; FAULT SYSTEMS ; DYNAMICS ; EVENTS ; TAIWAN ; VERIFICATION
WOS研究方向	Geochemistry & Geophysics
WOS类目	Geochemistry & Geophysics
项目资助者	Ministry of Science and Technology [2010DFB20190, 2008BAC35B05]
论文分区	二类/Q2
引用统计	被引频次：4[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/47030
专题	非线性力学国家重点实验室
通讯作者	Zhang, YX (reprint author), China Earthquake Networks Ctr, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Wu YJ,et al. Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes[J]. PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS,2013,170,1-2,:197-208.
APA	Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Wu YJ,Yin XC,&Zhang, YX .(2013).Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes.PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS,170(1-2),197-208.
MLA	Zhang YX,et al."Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes".PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS 170.1-2(2013):197-208.

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