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Title:
An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions
Author: Hao SW(郝圣旺); Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek
Source: JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
Issued Date: 2017-09-01
Volume: 343, Pages:252-262
Abstract: Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Omega Omega(similar to 1) = C (t(f) - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where LI represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword: Volcanic eruptions ; Time-to-accelerating-failure ; Creep ; Accelerating precursor
Language: 英语
Indexed Type: SCI ; EI
DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.07.009
Related URLs: 查看原文
DOC Type: Article
WOS Subject: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS Subject Extended: Geology
WOS Keyword Plus: SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ; FORECAST METHOD FFM ; ROCK FRACTURE ; LANDSLIDES ; EARTHQUAKES ; MONTSERRAT ; PATTERNS ; MEXICO ; COLIMA ; MODEL
WOS ID: WOS:000411305700018
ISSN: 0377-0273
Funder: National Natural Science Foundation of China(11672258) ; National Basic Research Program of China(2013 CB834100) ; Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(D2015203398)
Classification: 二类
Ranking: 2
Citation statistics:
Content Type: 期刊论文
URI: http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/70075
Appears in Collections:非线性力学国家重点实验室_期刊论文

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Recommended Citation:
Hao SW,Yang, Hang,Elsworth, Derek. An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions[J]. JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH,2017-09-01,343:252-262.
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