|Alternative Title||Storm surge-tide-wave coupling effects and inundation hazard in China’s coast|
|Place of Conferral||北京|
|Keyword||风暴潮 adcirc+swan 耦合效应 增水 淹没|
With vast sea area and long coastline, China is one of the countries suffering from severe marine disasters, in which storm tide ranks first. A single storm tide event can claim thousands of lives in the past. Though remarkable progress has been achieved at present, the annual economic losses due to storm tide are still as high as ten billion Yuan on average. Moreover, hundreds of death toll can still be caused by a single storm tide event. In future, the coastal regions would face more serious storm tide disaster owing to the industrialization and urbanization there and the tendency of sea level rise and typhoon intensification.
Focusing on the storm tide prone Zhe-min coast, an analysis model considering surge-tide-wave coupling effects was established based on the the tightly coupled tide-wave-surge model ADCIRC+SWAN. Storm tide by tropical cyclones Thane on the India Ocean and Saomai on the Northwest Pacific Ocean are simulated and validated, a good agreement with the in-situ observation was obtained. Then, the surge-tide-wave coupling effects and the storm tide inundation under the background of climate change were presented and discussed. The main results of this thesis include that:
Taking Saomai as the base tropical cyclone, the impact of tide coupling effect and wave coupling effect in surge-tide-wave coupling on the total water level was studied. The results show that, astronomical tide coupling effect has a more prominent influence on the total water level than wave coupling effect. The astronomical tide coupling effect on regions north and south of the typhoon path are both notable, more specifically, the contribution of astronomical tide to the total water level north of the typhoon path is more significant (about 29%) than south. While, wave coupling effect is signifacnt only north of a typhoon path (about 11%).
The impacts of influential factors, i.e. the astronomical tide phase when typhoon landing, the migration speed and intensity of tropical cyclone, on the surge-tide-wave coupling effects are studied. The results show that the water level tends to be underestimated (overestimated) when tropical cyclone lands during astronomical low (high) tide without considering the tide coupling effect; the peak of wave-induced surge increases with typhoon migration speed; the variation of typhoon intensity (<10%) has sinificant influence on the total water level, but it has negectable influence on the coupling effects of surge-tide-wave.
The situations of storm tide and inundation of Zhe-min coast under the background of climate change were analyzed. The results show that after 30 and 100 years, the potential maximal water level along Zhe-min coast would be 6.82 and 7.63 m, respectively, and the corresponding inundated area would be 1095 and 1237 square kilometers, respectively. The aforementioned results are expected to provide reference for the prevention, reduction and risk assessment for storm surge disasters in Zhe-min coast.
|吴西庆勇. 风暴增水-天文潮-海浪耦合效应与我国沿海风暴潮淹没研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2018.|
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