IMECH-IR  > 非线性力学国家重点实验室
An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions
Hao SW(郝圣旺); Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek; Hao, SW (reprint author), Yanshan Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Mech, Qinhuangdao, Peoples R China.
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
2017-09-01
Volume343Pages:252-262
ISSN0377-0273
AbstractReal-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Omega Omega(similar to 1) = C (t(f) - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where LI represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordVolcanic Eruptions Time-to-accelerating-failure Creep Accelerating Precursor
DOI10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.07.009
URL查看原文
Indexed BySCI ; EI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000411305700018
WOS KeywordSOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ; FORECAST METHOD FFM ; ROCK FRACTURE ; LANDSLIDES ; EARTHQUAKES ; MONTSERRAT ; PATTERNS ; MEXICO ; COLIMA ; MODEL
WOS Research AreaGeology
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China(11672258) ; National Basic Research Program of China(2013 CB834100) ; Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(D2015203398)
Classification二类
Ranking1
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/70075
Collection非线性力学国家重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorHao, SW (reprint author), Yanshan Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Mech, Qinhuangdao, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hao SW,Yang, Hang,Elsworth, Derek,et al. An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions[J]. JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH,2017,343:252-262.
APA 郝圣旺,Yang, Hang,Elsworth, Derek,&Hao, SW .(2017).An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions.JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH,343,252-262.
MLA 郝圣旺,et al."An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions".JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH 343(2017):252-262.
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