An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.07.009

IMECH-IR > 非线性力学国家重点实验室

	An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions
	Hao SW(郝圣旺); Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek; Hao, SW (reprint author), Yanshan Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Mech, Qinhuangdao, Peoples R China.
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH
	2017-09-01
卷号	343 页码:252-262
ISSN	0377-0273
摘要	Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Omega Omega(similar to 1) = C (t(f) - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where LI represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	Volcanic Eruptions Time-to-accelerating-failure Creep Accelerating Precursor
DOI	10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.07.009
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI ; EI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000411305700018
关键词[WOS]	SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ; FORECAST METHOD FFM ; ROCK FRACTURE ; LANDSLIDES ; EARTHQUAKES ; MONTSERRAT ; PATTERNS ; MEXICO ; COLIMA ; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
项目资助者	National Natural Science Foundation of China(11672258) ; National Basic Research Program of China(2013 CB834100) ; Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(D2015203398)
论文分区	二类
力学所作者排名	1
引用统计	被引频次：19[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/70075
专题	非线性力学国家重点实验室
通讯作者	Hao, SW (reprint author), Yanshan Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Mech, Qinhuangdao, Peoples R China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hao SW,Yang, Hang,Elsworth, Derek,et al. An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions[J]. JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH,2017,343:252-262.
APA	郝圣旺,Yang, Hang,Elsworth, Derek,&Hao, SW .(2017).An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions.JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH,343,252-262.
MLA	郝圣旺,et al."An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions".JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH 343(2017):252-262.

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